Daily Technical Analysis – JFD Trader’s Espresso – 05/08/2022 – Indices, Commodities, Cryptos and FX

Jft just fair and direct [music], okay, hello and good morning!

Everyone welcome to jvd traders espresso with me, darison charles, because today’s the 5th of august 2022 so yeah welcome.

Everyone! Welcome to this friday’s morning session, where we’re gonna have a very quick look at the markets, a view the charts, the usual stuff, but before we do that, as always, let’s quickly have a read through our risk disclaimer, so the content we produce does not constitute an investment advice or investment recommendation should not be considered as such and is not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product?

As always, i’ll give you a few seconds to read the rest and we can continue okay so now, also just before we jump into the charts, as always quick mentioning of our gfd youtube channels, which you can always subscribe to in order not to miss any of our upcoming videos and, of course, our jvd brokers. Com website, which you can check out for more information about us!

Now then um jumping into the charts out and before we jump into the charts i can see you there in the chat room good morning good morning to you too good morning to all the uh, as you said, girls and girls, and guys well basically good morning to everybody who’s joining in right now, so um, so yeah i, hope everybody’s having a wonderful, wonderful start of friday. It’s the last um last trading day of uh uh of this week, um so yeah. Let’s see how today is gonna play out, because today we have the uh, the us nfps coming out. Also the canadian job numbers we we do have on the on the lookout so yeah and the canadian ivpmi number.

So it could be quite an interesting day? Um, like i, said, let’s see what the market hasn’t prepared for us and in terms of uh in terms of nikkei 225 uh. Well, it’s basically uh.

It’s already finished and it look how it ended here? It ended here nicely: um, above, this barrier, this 28, 000 and 15 territory! I spoke about that level, so basically uh we got that cleared and we pushed further north now uh! The next target is the 28 338 territory or 39 territory. I, would say um and then we’ll go from there. Basically for uh, we’ll keep an eye on today’s trading activity, of course, on the un european and the us one uh we’ll see how that plays out? But if that continues to rally, then uh yeah, we will uh we’ll aim. We might even maybe clear this upper side of the range so again, we’ll see we’ll see how the um, how the futures market will uh will play out here on nikkei now uh shanghai composite so yeah continues to support this area?

Um this or should i say. Can the area continues to support this uh? the the index here so um in a way the same analysis is valid. Um i said to that look, i mean if we as long as we well. If we continue to hold above it, maybe we could see a bit of a retracement.

However, if i want to go for lower levels, then yes, uh, drop below this 3160 territory is required. Not only a drop but i’d like to see. I would like to see the index staying below it and then yeah.

We could go further. South uh in terms of the upside i need to see a break of this downside lying here taken from the high of the fifth of july, and then we could go to the upside now asx 200 guys so uh this one. It was a little bit of a roller coaster? Ride here, isaac as i can see um. It did violate this upside line, to be honest, but then kind of quickly respected it again and climbed back above it so, but the um, but the thing the way it traded out here i think that we we can get rid of this upside line because yeah it got violated? It then opened up lower a little bit.

The main the main ones here to watch are the 100 day ema, which look, as you can see here, provided fantastic support and also we cleared this 6981 level. So i talked about that and said that look if we push through it and stay above it, then yeah we’ll go for some higher levels and the asx as you can see here, it’s it’s stayed above this area! Um, let’s see if we can get a move towards that 208 ema, now, jumping into to the german index dax yesterday, it climbed nicely um to the upside a little bit as you can see here, but it still remained in positive territory but kind of lost the majority of its gains here and we saw a decline so um! We did reach that target of mine because, if you remember i kept on talking this week, i was mentioning this week that look. If we push through this barrier, this 13 400 level, or we at least stay above it then. Yes, my next target will be this 108 ema, together with the 13 750 level. This is what i was talking about in the beginning of this week, mission accomplished, um, i, wouldn’t say: team we’re getting home, we’re heading home. No, now we’re gonna reevaluate everything here again and try to see how we can position ourselves, maybe for a further move higher, but for that i would need to see a push: uh push towards above this barrier above the 13 750 zone. If we clear that- and we stay above that 100 day ema, then yeah we could go a little bit, maybe higher, but this is what i’m drawing right now, because this move higher could still be classed as a temporary correction before another possible leg of selling, guys so yeah i! Keep that in mind because, like i said, if we do push through that 108 ema again um and we do push through that uh 13 750 territory, then yeah i’ll go a little bit to the upside here. The cash index is currently sitting at around 13 673 territories, so so yeah um, let’s see, let’s see how this is going to play out. Um i, can see you there in the chat room there, uve uh. What do you? what do you think um? what exactly do you do? what exactly you’re asking about i mean this is uh? Is it dax or is it what so, yeah yeah? if you don’t mind, uh, just kind of you know putting the question there. Um yeah i’ll be happy to uh about a gravestone formation, um, okay, so it’s one of those uh foreign one of those four basically formations i mean look the further.

We go with technical analysis! The more people kind of try to kind of you know create new ones and i’m, not saying that this is not a you know, a formation which is uh uh working out or something uh? But um look, we have our cup and handle!

You know we have our uh! It’s again, you can those gravestones um i, think it’s a just a nice way of! Maybe you know trying to maybe call it as a you know as a doji or something like that? So at the oh you mean uh this.

This move here where, for example, it kind of drops here and then it rises, and then it forms like a shooting star here or something or a doji, or something like that um. It might be the case. Yes, however, even if it is what you’re talking about the gravestone formation still, for example, if you were looking for some downside here, then yeah it could drift lower but i! To be honest, i would prefer still to stick to my thirteen thousand three uh 400 level and then kind of go lower, because this whole area again it depends on the trading style. You know every one of you, you have your own trading style. You have your own trading strategies, so um? If it works for you perfect use it utilize, it use it until it stops working. If it doesn’t work for you or let’s say for or let’s say it works out, 50 50 or something, then you know then something’s, probably not right. So like, for example, me i, like falling veggies, um rising veggies i mean i i like these such formations, uh falling channels again as well, so the rising channels so i’m trying to kind of keep it simple again. We could try to find!

Maybe here, for example, maybe a double a double bottom here. You know, as it could have been the case here as well! Uh, but still i was when i was you know, even if it’s it is a double uh double bottom. In this situation, for example, yes, still, a breakout level is required and the same story with that um uh uh! If it’s um this gravestone thing, um okay i mean look at the end of the day. It’s still a doji or a shooting star i mean it’s uh. Still it’s a kind of a it is still a reverse and a reversal uh signal so again, uh try. You can keep those in mind? Of course i mean you have your also the three white soldiers, the the like something like that is i!

Think i can’t remember like uh i want a bit the bearish three which i’ve mentioned before as well, so you have those patterns as well in there, but again it’s um still i’m kind of leaning more towards the breakouts um.

Again, it’s my type, my my style, my trading strategy, so my uh? So again you can listen to me what i’m saying what i’m saying is: just that um, you know it’s still i would say if everybody should figure out for themselves, what’s working for them better! So if it’s, if something like that is working for you perfect, if something like yeah, something else is working for you. That’s even you know also perfect, so um yeah everybody just has to find their own trading style um but, most importantly, have your stop loss in place. Even if it let’s say if it is uh this uh, what you’re referring to um? okay, we could maybe drift a little bit lower here, but then your stop loss has to be somewhere around here, but then also don’t forget about false breakouts as well. Those could you know, take you out, nasdaq 100, so, okay, so this one is drifting nicely to the to the upside um. So far, uh so good. To be honest, i mean everything’s, looking quite positive, but um as i mentioned in the beginning of this week, as well uh and then yesterday and the day before, yesterday’s look i mean we broke this! We parked above that 12 900 level, okay, great, so that if we stay above it, then my next target is the 200-day ema i’m still aiming for that um. The on my chart here, the 208 emas roughly around that uh 13 uh 422 area approximately around there? The cash index right now is sitting at around 13 340 levels so still have some bit of room, but again uh, don’t you know i’m i’m, assuming some of you are like already, maybe counting these positive candles here and without hoping? You know like uh like in roulette, you you’re, hoping you know to see this one. You know showing up as black already but and basically i would say you know be very careful always with that guys and uh. We could still see this one. You know traveling nicely to the upside, and even if we do see it, maybe a bit a nice black candle here um it might not be a significant one and it could still be like just a temporary pause before you know. Continuation move higher so again be very careful as always. If if this is something, let’s say not that you are not comfortable with, and you think that maybe you have missed out on on this leave it honestly um leave it um. There will be an opportunity, maybe you’ll see you know! Finally, a a good reversal signal at the moment: i’m not seeing a reversal signal unless we start getting a strong hold up near this 208 ema.

If we do that, maybe then yes i’ll consider maybe a retracement back down, but even then i would need to see one of my support levels getting broken, but at the moment um, let’s keep an eye on that 200 ema dxy, the dollar index! So it drifted nicely to the downside. Yesterday. Look at this, so it failed to move higher um and yeah. I said that look i mean if we. If we move back below this twin 21 day, ema, then yeah. Maybe we could see a bit of a you know, decline here and at the moment to be honest, uh look in general. If we evaluate this way that we saw a correction here, a nice correction to the upside tested that 21 day ema overshot it a little bit but found good resistance near this upside line? So, basically from underneath we tested it and uh yep. We are uh we’re now drifting uh back to the downside, so i would say i’m not saying anything guys in general today, specifically today, because look at the moment, if everything would stay like as as it is, then yes, i would go lower. Would initially aim for this 105. 05 territory, which is the current lowest point of august, and if that gets clear, then i’ll aim for this upside line, but given that we have nfps today well watch out for that one, maybe we could come out as a surprise um, you know it could.

You know, could give a boost to the dollar here so, but even then, my my upside scenario is somewhere from around this 107. 48 i know that sometimes, for example, in such scenarios, uh there’s you know what what might happen is that um, let’s say my upside scenarios from around here and today. Let’s say we do get a pop higher and we travel all the way higher here towards this 107. 48.

We overshoot it a little bit. Everybody starts coming going in here and then we reverse back to the downside towards this upside line. Um, that’s not the case how to trade it! Basically, it’s like i if, let’s say if you’re not comfortable at this point, just kind of like i said leave. It just keep an eye on it there! There are plenty of other instruments that you can trade? You can take advantage of, but let’s say if it does do something like that! Let’s say it pushes higher and gives us a little false breakout and then drift back down um, that’s one of those indications that guys wait. Uh.

Maybe today is not the day to let’s say you know, even if it pops higher. Maybe today is not day, two uh kind of do something about it! But if you are really in the mood you know to do something with dxy, then maybe just to keep an eye on uh this little area, the high of yesterday near the 106. 51 level. So a nice good pop above it may yeah attract a few more buyers, and we could see this one pushing to the upside.

However, i i genuinely suggest to kind of maybe wait for a little bit uh just to see how it’s going to come out, how the numbers are going to come out and then maybe do something about it. So, but at the moment yep it’s um it’s! it is how it is guys. I mean at the moment i would say: i’m leaning a little bit more towards the downside, um, but i would um! You know. I will only aim for the current lowest point of uh of of of august here near the 105. 05, and then, if that gets broken, wonderful uh, we could go further south now jumping into gold very quickly? So a good rally!

Yesterday look i talked about this uh yesterday and i said that um.

The fact i was said that when i was that i was a cautiously bullish because we were sitting at the time of my video. We were sitting around here somewhere below the 1780 uh, sorry 1775 level! I said that look if you’re looking for some upside of course, preferably i would like to see a push about this uh 1787 territory, but um. You know if you’re looking for some a little bit more excitement than basically a pop-up of the 1775 territory would be uh could be! You know, considered uh as a nice bullish, indication and yeah. We could go further north well. This is what i said yesterday. This is what happened.

I mean i’m not saying that you know again, i have a crystal ball here or something no, but just uh logically i mean we! We broke this resistance and we did break this resistance on on the second on tuesday, but um.

We also we kind of drifted back to the downside and uh. You know this kind of proved a quite a decent area of resistance on thursday i’m, sorry on wednesday! We also had a kind of a stall near this area and we drifted back down so now.

The strong breakout here helps they have more bulls to join in at the moment. I would say this way as long as it stays above this, 1787 territory, i, am leaning towards this 108 ema or before that i would say: i’m leaning towards this 1807 level uh if it stays just if it stays above this, 1787 level. If it starts dropping back below it, um i will remain a little bit on the careful side, because maybe you know it’s not ready to push further north wti oil, guys mission accomplished partially, but in general everything is working out nicely. So in the beginning of this week, or in the first half of this week, i said that look i’m quite bearish on this one and uh well, i need to see a break below this 93?

56 territory which we got. Yes, we got it so now, then, what’s next um, so we i’ve reached my targets here: uh, that’s 90. 58 and the 89. 04, it’s okay, everything’s, fine, um! now, what’s next uh, basically i would say it’s a difficult one here, i’m still leaning towards the downside.

As long as it’s going to stay below this um 900, sorry 90? 58 level, so um, even if it pushes a little bit higher i’m gonna stay if it stays below it below this hurdle, then yes, i’ll, um i, might consider this as a little temporary correction before another person, lego selling this level i’ll i, have to admit this 89! 04 uh. Yes, we reached it, but it didn’t really carry any much significance. So i will try to maybe search for another possible area of support.

Maybe actually this is the one that i had previously and why did i remove it? i really don’t know, and this actually worked out perfectly so there we go this 87. 90 level. I had this level before, but hey well decided to remove it, and actually this was the more important level to watch so yeah, okay. This is a bit of a my mistake here.

Well, this these things happen, but you kind of you’re kind of right in the beginning, but then you’d start doubting yourself and you actually make more uh issues, but either way i mean the target still was reached. This 89 0.

04 level i mean i’ve, yeah i’ve managed to reach it uh, but this one probably should have been better i mean, would have been better anyway. Um long story, short uh, like i, said we’re now seeing a bit of a retracement! If we stay below this 80 90! 58 territory, another decline here, it could be possible if you’re not comfortable. With that scenario, just wait for a drop below that 87.

90 level here and then we’ll go from there. Bitcoin uh, so beautiful, rebounds uh from that 21 day, ema i, wouldn’t say even that from its uh from the upside line line in yes, and no because again depends on how you’re going to draw it. Maybe this way, but it’s very, very subjective either way guys the 21, day ema helped us out here. So we had a nice reversal. However, i’m still looking for this highlighted territory here this 24. 287 area i’m not going to say it is level it’s an area basically around that level um. So that’s what i’m looking for i need to see a nice strong move above it and then i’ll go for the upside uh aud usd, jumping into a few pairs now list uh. Yesterday, i’ve talked about this and i said that look um. What we’re seeing here is that yes, great a nice little rebound from this downside line, which i’ve mentioned before um, which we broke initially, but the the thing that we’re saying is seeing here- and this is like i said this- is what i talked about in my yesterday in yesterday’s video that yes, we’re having a beautiful rebound from this uh down uh this downside line uh, it’s like acting in something like a trampoline, but this whole formation right here could be like a bearish flag um!

Now, let’s see, if that’s going to be the case, if it’s going to work out as a bearish flag, um, either way guys um, given the situation where we are right now, i would say, is still a drop not only below uh. Let me just put this on the chart not only below this uh, the current lowest point of this week near these urban 6886 is required, but also a drop um below this downside line so yeah and then more more by uh, more certain buyers, more sellers could join in and we could see you know this. One uh pushing nicely uh to the um nicely to the downside, now uh, jumping into usd sage, chef, guys, oh, and by the way, with the upside on the audch aad usd, is that uh? if we do push through this 0.

6977 level and stay above it, then yeah we’ll go a little bit more to the upside now usd chf um? Looking at this picture here, um i would say: um it’s quite an interesting one right now, because again, um i’m keeping an eye on these two levels? These two uh the hide here, the the high of this week near the 0. 9651 and the low of this week near the 0? 94 70 70 level.

So basically, as long as it stays in here, i’m just observing this one, because this is not perfect for me, because this is this is stuck here between these emas, so i mean i’m, really not liking. This i once we start seeing a breakthrough one of these levels, that’s when i’ll consider for the upside i’ll consumer? Consider a test of this downside line for the downside, um yep. We could, you know, aim further south here, and maybe we could aim for here somewhere uh this 0. 93 0. 93, 74 or even below that uh gbp ncd, quick update, so i talked about this one this week? Just a quick, let’s say the update um. We failed look at this? This is why i keep on saying to you guys that wait for that.

You know wait for the candle to stay above it because we got these uh false breakouts and well got a bit of a tease here, and this is what we’re getting we’re getting uh now we’re seeing the bulls getting crushed a little bit and basically my downside scenario is working out nicely. Um i would say yesterday it worked out nicely because yesterday we dropped below this 1.

9288 and almost managed to reach my other target, this 1. 9144 level, which is the lower side of the range where we’re currently sitting in um and we’re today we’re pushing again below that 1! 9288? So as long as we stay below it, i am aiming for that lower side of the range here where we are currently sitting in um. Let me just put this probably on the chart? Maybe this way it’s going to be a little bit better um yep.

There we go and there we go right this like this! There we go now: gbp usd, um, so uh gbp usd is uh stuck here and uh uh. Yesterday we had the bank of england coming out? You know coming increasing its interest rates, okay, so that was expected from 1.

25 to 1?

75. So everything everything is okay, but, as you can see, we did get a bit of a roller coaster ride here, but didn’t really end up into anything um instead we’re just kind of uh stuck here. We can get rid of this upside line, no longer needed, and now we’re just. We can see that we are just sliding, alongside this uh, this downside line?

So if you’re looking for some upside i to be honest, i would prefer to stick to this area. This 1. 2293 territory, if we are looking for some downside, um previously i’ve marked this in 1. 1967 level, but i think that we can mark?

Actually, the current lowest point of this week near the 1.

20 65 and as we drop below it, may lead to some lower levels! Quick update on eurocad, look at this i talked about this and i said like look. Maybe this is forming a ascending triangle, but don’t rush into anything, wait for that confirmation break and that’s one of the.

Why i keep on saying this because look i mean we had a reversal here. It flirted a little bit with this area and then boom reversed back to the upside got, a hold up near the uh, this little short term uh downside line, and now it’s still stalling below it now um.

What i can say here is that, yes, there is still an opportunity for the sellers to step in because well, this is like i said it’s uh forming something of a uh descending triangle pattern: um?

Will that be the case? that’s going to be a good question, of course, because still i have a breakout below this 1. 30 24 level is required, not only that would like to see the pair staying below it? However, if it starts breaking higher here, then you know we can probably ignore uh the maybe the downside scenario and we could see uh in the for the for now the downsides! For now we can ignore that um and we, if we also push above the 1 0! 3291 level, then yeah we could go nicely to the upside towards that 108 ema, euro, nzd um, just a quick update. It’s all also quite interesting, uh, this one’s hanging in there a little bit better than gp and cd, but um we broke this downside line which, to be honest, doesn’t carry actually much significance as we can see here, so we can get rid of it and focus mainly on some of the levels instead? So if you’re looking for some upside i would say, wait for a push above the 21 day ema here above this 1?

6340, if you’re looking for some uh downside, then wait for a drop below the 1. 6134 territory right here and then yeah?

We could go lower? Now, um euro, usd um, this one’s gonna be on a on a watch today, so be careful here and um i would say. If again, still the same game plan remains valid, um the only positive thing here is that we have pushed back above the 21 day ema and we are continuing to trade above it. If we do continue to do so to do that then i! My next target is this downside line taken from the high of the 10th of february, and then we will take it from there guys for the downside. I need to see a drop below this 1? 0122 and then also we will take it from there now guys? I hope you found it useful! Thank you very much for your views for your likes, for your comments, guys specifically to use.

Thank you very much um, but um yeah, guys, i, hope, you’ll have a fantastic trading day. Um today, don’t forget that it’s uh it’s nfp day. So, let’s see how that’s gonna play out if you’re trying to predict something you know before and enter a trade before the kind of the news release, i would say, be careful because, again you’re, you know your stop-loss might get triggered very quickly and uh. Let’s say if it goes against you, maybe sometimes, even even with this, the spread increase, depending depending on who you’re trading with but um yeah? So just be careful, maybe you know you can um utilize. The news after it comes out, so i would strongly recommend doing that! Just wait until it comes out and then do something about it if you’ll you’ll always find opportunities, so guys have a wonderful weekend as well um. Thank you very much for joining in this week! Um i really appreciate that really really really do um. If you want to catch me on monday, as always, six o’clock gmt time for now have a wonderful trading day! Stay safe, have yourself in place and everything will be fine? Thank you very much and bye-bye.